As of today’s opening price of $164.89, AAPL trades at a 23.2x multiple on my NTM EPS estimate (22.6x when excluding NTM net cash and dividends).
Capital return program update (my expectations):
$90-100b added to authorization
$41.7b remained as of Dec and about $17-20b as of April
Quarterly dividend raised 13% to 26 cents
Detailed estimates: 3mo ending Mar23 Rev$B GM% $EPS ---------------- ----- ---- ---- Analysts consens 93.0 - 1.43 My estimates 96.1 44.8 1.54 (15.87b shares) 3mo ending Jun23 Rev$B GM% $EPS ---------------- ----- ---- ---- Analysts consens 84.7 - 1.22 Apple gde lo (e) 86.0 43.5 1.29* Apple gde hi (e) 91.0 44.5 1.44* My estimates 93.0 44.5 1.50 (15.73b shares) *EPS guidance ranges derived from other figures provided by Apple and diluted shares outstanding estimated by me 12m ending Sep23 Rev$B $EPS ---------------- ----- ---- Analysts consens 387.9 5.95 My estimates 406.5 6.53 Valuation Timeframe NTMfrom $EPS Y/Y Mult Val $* Div Tot --------- ------- ---- --- ---- --- --- ---- --- Trail Val Apr2022 5.90 -4% 22.6 133 3.1 0.92 137 Frwrd Val Apr2023 7.11 20% 23.6 168 2.9 1.04 172 1y Target Apr2024 7.63 7% 23.9 182 2.1 1.16 186 2y Value! Apr2025 8.16 7% 24.0 196 1.5 1.32 198 *Cash per share balance net of debt and commercial paper(click to enlarge)
F2Q23 Statements of Operations Revenues F2Q23e F2Q22 Y/Y% -------- ------ ------ ----- iPhone 49,699 50,570 -1.7 Mac 8,387 10,435 -19.6 iPad 6,908 7,646 -9.7 W/H/A 10,499 8,806 19.2 -------- ------ ------ ----- Products 75,492 77,457 -2.5 Services 20,579 19,821 3.8 -------- ------ ------ ----- Tot Revs 96,072 97,278 -1.2 Gross Margin Breakdown -------- ------ ------ ----- Products 28,073 28,167 -0.3 Services 14,941 14,392 3.8 -------- ------ ------ ----- Tot GM 43,013 42,559 1.1 -------- ------ ------ ----- Prod GM% 37.2% 36.4% 0.8 Svcs GM% 72.6% 72.6% 0.0 -------- ------ ------ ----- Tot GM% 44.8% 43.7% 1.0 Op Expns 13,720 12,580 9.1 -------- ------ ------ ----- OpIncome 29,294 29,979 -2.3 Op Mrgn% 30.5% 30.8% -0.3 OIE -102 160 N/A -------- ------ ------ ----- Pre-Tax 29,192 30,139 -3.1 Tax Rate 16.3% 17.0% -0.7 Tax Prov 4,758 5,129 -7.2 -------- ------ ------ ----- Net Incm 24,434 25,010 -2.3 Net Mrg% 25.4% 25.7% -0.3 Dil Shrs 15,870 16,403 -3.2 -------- ------ ------ ----- EPS $1.54 $1.52 1.0 Amounts in millions except EPS in dollars and ratios in %
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