As of today’s $ 111.58 market close, the AAPL is now trading at 10.4x multiple according to my EPS estimate for the next twelve months (7.4x excluding the next 12 million in cash and giant).
Slightly revised FY16 rev / EPS down by ~ 2/3% mostly on the clock. It still has a lot of advantages in the next year, with a consensual growth of turnover / EPS of 5/7% (to 11/17% alone), while market prices are in flat or lower EPS despite further buyouts.
Detailed estimates:
3mo ending Sep-2015 Rev($M) GM(%) EPS($) ------------------- ------- ----- ------ Analysts consensus 51,060 1.88 Apple guide low 49,000 38.5 1.72* Apple guide high 51,000 39.5 1.89* Deagol estimates 51,902 39.6 1.94 (5.72b shares) 3mo ending Dec-2015 Rev($M) GM(%) EPS($) ------------------- ------- ----- ------ Analysts consensus 76,930 3.20 Apple guide low (e) 74,000 39.0 2.98* Apple guide high(e) 78,000 40.0 3.29* Deagol estimates 78,167 40.0 3.29 (5.68b shares) *EPS guidance ranges derived from other figures provided by Apple and diluted shares outstanding estimated by me 12m ending Sep-2016 Rev($M) EPS($) ------------------- ------- ------ Analysts consensus 245,140 9.79 Deagol estimates 260,245 10.72 Valuation (fwd-12mo from) EPS($) Y/Y 10x Cash* Div Tot ------------------------- ------ --- --- ---- ---- --- Trailing (Oct-2014) 9.18 43% 92 26 1.98 120 Fair value (Oct-2015) 10.72 17% 107 31 2.20 140 1yr target (Oct-2016) 12.36 15% 124 38 2.50 164 * Cash/share balance net of long-term debt
(click to enlarge)
F4Q15 Revenue breakdown (millions, except ASP): iPhone 31,795 (49.0 × $649) iPad 4,193 (10.0 × $419) Mac 6,990 (5.75 × $1,216) Services 4,951 Other 3,974 ( 3.6 × $591 = 2,126 Watch) Income statement (millions, except EPS): Revenue 51,902 COGS 31,373 GM 20,529 39.6% OpEx 5,922 OpInc 14,607 28.1% OI&E 419 Pre-tax 15,026 Tax 3,952 26.3% NetInc 11,074 21.3% Shares 5,721 EPS $ 1.94
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