APPLE STOCK

Final estimates of fiscal 4Q 2015


As of today’s $ 111.58 market close, the AAPL is now trading at 10.4x multiple according to my EPS estimate for the next twelve months (7.4x excluding the next 12 million in cash and giant).

Slightly revised FY16 rev / EPS down by ~ 2/3% mostly on the clock. It still has a lot of advantages in the next year, with a consensual growth of turnover / EPS of 5/7% (to 11/17% alone), while market prices are in flat or lower EPS despite further buyouts.

Detailed estimates:

3mo ending Sep-2015  Rev($M)  GM(%)  EPS($)
-------------------  -------  -----  ------
Analysts consensus    51,060          1.88
Apple guide low       49,000   38.5   1.72*
Apple guide high      51,000   39.5   1.89*
Deagol estimates      51,902   39.6   1.94 (5.72b shares)


3mo ending Dec-2015  Rev($M)  GM(%)   EPS($)
-------------------  -------  -----   ------
Analysts consensus    76,930           3.20
Apple guide low (e)   74,000   39.0    2.98*
Apple guide high(e)   78,000   40.0    3.29*
Deagol estimates      78,167   40.0    3.29 (5.68b shares)

*EPS guidance ranges derived from other figures provided
 by Apple and diluted shares outstanding estimated by me


12m ending Sep-2016  Rev($M)  EPS($)
-------------------  -------  ------
Analysts consensus   245,140   9.79
Deagol estimates     260,245  10.72


Valuation (fwd-12mo from)  EPS($)  Y/Y  10x  Cash*  Div  Tot
-------------------------  ------  ---  ---  ----  ----  ---
Trailing       (Oct-2014)    9.18  43%   92    26  1.98  120
Fair value     (Oct-2015)   10.72  17%  107    31  2.20  140
1yr target     (Oct-2016)   12.36  15%  124    38  2.50  164

* Cash/share balance net of long-term debt

(click to enlarge)

F4Q15 Revenue breakdown (millions, except ASP): iPhone 31,795 (49.0 × $649) iPad 4,193 (10.0 × $419) Mac 6,990 (5.75 × $1,216) Services 4,951 Other 3,974 ( 3.6 × $591 = 2,126 Watch) Income statement (millions, except EPS): Revenue 51,902 COGS 31,373 GM 20,529 39.6% OpEx 5,922 OpInc 14,607 28.1% OI&E 419 Pre-tax 15,026 Tax 3,952 26.3% NetInc 11,074 21.3% Shares 5,721 EPS $ 1.94



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Naveen Kumar

Friendly communicator. Music maven. Explorer. Pop culture trailblazer. Social media practitioner.

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