The day has come! Thursday, October 27, is Apple‘s (AAPL) – Get Apple Inc. Report fiscal Q4 earnings day.
The Apple Maven follows the developments of the day via live blog below, starting at 4 pm EST – the exact time of the closing bell at the corner of Broad and Wall Streets, in New York City. We start with a brief wrap-up of what investors should expect to see. To skip straight to live coverage, scroll down to the Live Coverage Starts Here section.
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Apple’s Fiscal Q4: What to Expect
For the September quarter, analysts expect revenues to increase just short of 7% to $88.8 billion. The growth rate may seem small, but it is off of tough comps in 2021. Compounded over two years, the annual sales growth number is a much more impressive 17%.
EPS is projected to land at $1.27, only 2% above last year’s comparable figure. The story is similar, however: over a two-year period, annualized earnings growth looks much better, at 32% compounded.
As usual, the iPhone will be a very important story to follow. I expect to see strong numbers, as Apple has likely gained quite a bit of market share from its global smartphone competitors in calendar Q3. My estimate is for segment revenue growth of 12% to 15%, in FX-neutral terms.
The Mac accounts for only 10% of total revenues, but it could be one of the bullish stories this quarter. Supported by a robust new MacBook Air equipped with M2 chip, I think that segment revenues could climb as much as 38% – less so when currency headwinds are factored in.
The segment that I expect to lag relative to its own historical record is services. Pressured by lower discretionary spending that is likely to have hit the App Store and other offerings, I would not be surprised to see segment revenue growth dip to or below 10%.
Apple stock is currently about 17% off the early January 2022 peak. Keep an eye on how the share price will react to the earnings print. I asked Twitter for an opinion on what to expect, and here is what they had to say:
Live Coverage Starts Here
6:00 am EST: Today is the big day! But it is still early in New York City, even earlier at Apple’s HQ, in Cupertino-California. Live coverage begins at 4 pm EST, see you then!
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(Disclaimers: this is not investment advice. The author may be long one or more stocks mentioned in this report. Also, the article may contain affiliate links. These partnerships do not influence editorial content. Thanks for supporting the Apple Maven)
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